Peak Oil? Is it upon us?

[Badsight]

peak oil is just the max they can pump out , the max has been dropping off all over the place for a while now

many countrys are already at peak oil . some are past it . others yet to hit it

tar sands oil is so damadging (to the enviroment) its not funny

but they will still get raped . never underestimate the greed of man

[Badsight]

largest profit ever recorded by an oil company over one year ?

2006 , BP

once the beancounters are finished with 2007's report , we will probably see the record broken again

never has an oil company made as much money in one year as BP has just done recently . interesting to note the price of gas before the iraq war

[NSXType-R]

Originally Posted by my porsche

I had this long reply typed out and when I hit submit, the UCP server shat itself, so here is just what I can remember of it, it was a few hours ago.



Why? That's not even that high for a CEO in this country. Rex Tillerson (Exxon) is ranked 134 among CEOs according to salary. Why don't we have another senatorial hearing for the 133 guys ahead of him as to why their pricing of their goods and services have accommodated huge profits? Face it, in a free market, the guys at the top of a business that is in high demand will be raking in the money. Would you honestly expect anyone, regardless of profession to refuse a pay raise because their business has been successful? No. Why would it be any different for them simply because their chosen profession is oil? Plus, they've been making almost this much for a long, long time.

I say, why is the price of gasoline so low? Yeah, LOW. The price of a barrel of crude oil has more than doubled since this time last year, but the price of a gallon of gas has only gone up ~30%, what explains the disparity in pricing? I think the media frenzy is both blowing out of proportion and intensifying this entire ordeal, let's use some rough numbers here. Based on 15,000 miles a year, 17mpg, the average person uses 885 gallons of gas a year, at the $3 a gallon of last year, the average American spent $2,650 a year on gas, at $4 per gallon, $3,500. Is the extra $850 really affecting them that much? No.

I saw an article in the paper about how "higher gas prices are making some fans, even the most die hard, are reconsidering whether their money is better spent elsewhere". Their numbers boiled down to an extra $7 per outing caused by higher gas prices, which was the huge "strain" in their $180 baseball game outing. People need to just be sensible and think things through before they just freak out and start acting like doomsday is around the corner.

Do we need to find alternative fuel sources? Yes. Is the sky falling and Armageddon eminent? No.

Right, you do have a point that it's a free market, he should be able to profit all that he wants.

But you should also consider Rockefella's point in that the price of everything in stores have risen.

Originally Posted by Rockefella

One thing to remember is that increases in gas prices are not solely at the pumps. Think about transportation of goods and manufacturing of raw materials.

Originally Posted by MRR

I agree in the sense that gasoline is still relatively cheap (sorry we only pay around $4-5 a gallon depending on where you are in the US while Europe pays $8-9 a gallon). However the rapid spike in price is indicative of a supply shortfall. Already the IEA has cut back their optimistic estimates in oil production expansion (I think they are still too optimistic) and the fact is we are running out of oil very fast.

The government should be doing everything it can to find a way to produce gasoline and diesel substitutes (fuel cells, etc won't be viable for many years if not decades unfortunately). Algae oil, coal to oil, etc basically everything beside ethanol from corn would be helpful right now. How about taking those billions in tax breaks for oil companies and useless subsidies to wealthy farmers in the Farm Bill from last week and put it towards finding petroleum fuel substitutes? We should have learned our lesson in the 1970s but we had better hurry up before production starts declining and we get into deep shit.

Yeah, it's the lobbyists that have asked for and have gotten the corn subsidies in the Midwest. There's not enough ethanol to be produced from corn to supply all of us in the US. There's no point in even trying. There are better alternatives anyway.

[MRR]

Originally Posted by NSXType-R

There are better alternatives anyway.

Yup and I nominate this
The search for the perfect fuel - Apr. 22, 2008

Algae produces 100s to 1000s of times more yield per acre than any other comparable crop and the oil it produces can be refined into gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, etc. No modification to the existing fuel distribution infrastructure would be needed, it doesn't take land away from agriculture (can do this in the desert), and it can use wastewater or even saltwater algae (thereby alleviating water supply concerns). The power industry loves it because it can recycle CO2 emission from coal plants thereby making it particularly attractive if a carbon tax is implemented in the US.

[Cyco]

Bumping this thread as oil heads back to CitiGroup's forecast of $40/barrel.

Whoever made this should have a chance of not being one of the 50 000 who are getting sacked.

[Dino Scuderia]

Goldman Sachs predicted then reaffirmed later that oil would be $149 by the end of the year.

CG's obviously seems more agreeable, eh.

[MRR]

Originally Posted by Cyco

Bumping this thread as oil heads back to CitiGroup's forecast of $40/barrel.

Whoever made this should have a chance of not being one of the 50 000 who are getting sacked.

Dunno I suspect cheap oil will be a very short term thing (anywhere from 6 months to 2 years) but in the next decade if not few years prices will spike again. Now there is an unusual excess of supply because no-one is buying anything

[f6fhellcat13]

Originally Posted by MRR

Dunno I suspect cheap oil will be a very short term thing (anywhere from 6 months to 2 years) but in the next decade if not few years prices will spike again. Now there is an unusual excess of supply because no-one is buying anything

Stockpiling time.

[csl177]

Originally Posted by f6fhellcat13

Stockpiling time.

Time to get friendly with pure electrics. Peak oil has already passed us, as predicted in 1956 by Prof. Hubbert.

Lots of documentation... Google away.

[MRR]

Originally Posted by csl177

Time to get friendly with pure electrics. Peak oil has already passed us, as predicted in 1956 by Prof. Hubbert.

Lots of documentation... Google away.

It hasn't already passed us so you are wrong on that front and Hubbert predicted it would happen to the world in 1995. Also most of the stuff that you google is 99% idiot doomers predicting the end of the world in 10 years when oil peaks and are basically just a bunch of cult morons.

[csl177]

Do you consider the coverage by the Wall Street Journal moronic or the analysis of the American Petroleum Institute questionable?
International Energy Agency Acknowledges 'Patently Unsustainable' Trends in Global Energy Supply and Consumption - MarketWatch

While it's true that Hubbert missed the actual date by 6 or 7 years, most industry analysts place peak oil at Winter 2001-Summer 2002.

The point is simple: whether one believes "peak oil" has come or not, consumption will continue to out-strip world production. Historical models of dominant economic forces nearly all follow a similar arc from discovery, efficient exploitation and profitabilty to replacement by another more easily accessible and profitable form. This doesn't suggest that oil will disappear but will be supplanted by other more accessible and profitable technologies. You don't need an MBA to understand this. (BTW, a childhood friend has worked as a geologist for Shell since 1982... I tend to believe his views on the subject over the apoplectic crap floating on the interwebs.)

Next up? Pure electrics, particularly storage and PV efficiencies. Nothing to be afraid of, but study well and invest wisely. There will be many failed techs on the road towards the future without oil as economically dominant.

EDIT:
Also, MMR... I agree that algae looks most promising for commercial fuel development. We'll need something to keep planes in the air and ships moving goods.

[Matra et Alpine]

"peak oil" is a fallacy as recent "discovery" of vast sources shows.
The "peak" at $40 a barrel definately passed this year.
So, yep, it'll be more and more difficult to get oil at £40/barrel.
SO the authors and nay-sayers can claim they were "right"

But of course, if we're willing to pay $150 a barrel then the availabel oil for us is as large as what we've used to date. The $150 doesn't give more profit than $40, but it does mean that an extra $110 per barrel is spent in recovering it.

[SlickHolden]

Australia has enough oil for 250 years. Yet we import it what wankers !. Sell it overseas dirt cheap. And buy it back ?. Sounds silly.

[henk4]

Originally Posted by SlickHolden

Australia has enough oil for 250 years. Yet we import it what wankers !. Sell it overseas dirt cheap. And buy it back ?. Sounds silly.

really?

The end of oil - Part 1 - Ask an expert - The Lab - Australian Broadcasting Corporation's Gateway to Science

[csl177]

Knowing what we know now.... imagine this scenario: Back in time to 1870, you're heavily invested in whale oil production. When petroleum comes along in a few years will you ride whale oil to the bottom or make the change financially into producing crude? Of course not. You go with petroleum. Everyone knows there's fewer whales, and all the new technology works great with oil. Win... at least until oil starts to be expensive and carbon releases become an atmospheric/climate problem world-wide. But that'll take 100 years, so f@#k it.
Let's also not forget that most of the conflicts of the 20th century were over oil. Fact.

It's not just the issues of decreasing availability or the concurrent increase in cost of production that need to be considered.
Earth's population was 1/2 of what it is today just 35 years ago. Alternative, emerging energy technologies are the crude of the 1880s.
I'm looking forward to them.