Peak Oil? Is it upon us?

[MRR]

Peak oil - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

I am starting to read a bit about this now and it seems many believe are very close if not already past peak production. This wouldn't be so scary if there were alternative means of transporting goods across the world but think about how trade and commerce (shipping and transport) all rely almost 100% on oil. We have coal and other ways of producing electricity but you have to have diesel to get coal to power stations, fuel to get uranium out of the ground, to construct a windfarm, etc. Is anyone else starting to believe this like me.

[digitalcraft]

I don't think we are, I think people are fearing we are, so you have a) investors buying up oil supplies, lowering the supply, and b) American refineries(and probably other) lowering their output capacity, which also lowers supply, increases price, and they have a big reserve just in case. There's been some congressional hearings about whether some hanky panky is going on.

[Kitdy]

I've read a bit about this before and I simply don't know. I do know that Alberta's sitting on the second largest amount of oil in the world and production is increasing at a rapid rate, and will presumably increase as oil prices go up. 150 billion odd barrels of oil are in the tar sands, that is a large amount.

[092326001]

We've still got the oil sands in fort mcmurray, i believe it's been said it'll last us another century.

[bmwpower]

Funny you should ask, did a project on peak oil theory. The peak oil theory worked well for America because it is one large, but stable economy by global standards, attempts to predict world's peak oil have been futile because as oil prices rise it becomes more financially viable to drill in areas previously deemed too expensive. This is the case of Alberta, previously separating the oil from oil sands was too expensive to justify the investment in capital, but with rising price of oil companies have now begun to extract oil, thus using the second largest reserve of oil in the world, which previously had been untouched, and as oil prices rise, more oil becomes available for the same reason, so I think its unlikely to peak in the near future...

[P4g4nite]

Hopefully we'll see things like efficiently produced biodiesel catch up to petroleum price while we still have some oil left.
We still need that stuff for plastics and crap.

EDIT
After the tar sands are used up still other sources will become viable, eukaryotic biomass for example!
Do you know how many people die each year? That is a lot of potential oil we aren't exploiting...renewable too.

[MRR]

The fact is the world consumes 30 billion barrels of oil a year. The Canadian oil sands have around 180 billion barrels in the best case scenario. There is oil shale as well but it costs such an exorbitant amount of money to produce and it emits much more CO2 in the process of converting it to usable oil. In the past it would mean the US in particular would consume less, demand would decrease, and prices would stabilize but unfortunately huge increases in demand from India and China will more than offset any decrease in US consumption. The fact of the matter is I believe we will see the price of a barrel of crude doubling if not tripling in the next few years. I sincerely hope I am wrong but people have to stop putting their heads in the sand and believing that cheap oil is coming back. In 1998 a barrel of crude somewhere between $10-15 (can't remember exactly) and is now pushing close to $130.

[MRR]

Originally Posted by P4g4nite

Hopefully we'll see things like efficiently produced biodiesel catch up to petroleum price while we still have some oil left.
We still need that stuff for plastics and crap.

EDIT
After the tar sands are used up still other sources will become viable, eukaryotic biomass for example!
Do you know how many people die each year? That is a lot of potential oil we aren't exploiting...renewable too.

Its not the same kind of oil if I am not mistaken. There is far less usable biomass than is needed to continue oil consumption at even present levels much less in the future.

[Cyco]

CitiGroup obvious thinks the peak is some way away, or demand will lessen greatly as their price forecast is for $40/barrel.

This does contrast with Goldman Sachs' forecast of $200 a barrel though.

[MRR]

Originally Posted by Cyco

CitiGroup obvious thinks the peak is some way away, or demand will lessen greatly as their price forecast is for $40/barrel.

This does contrast with Goldman Sachs' forecast of $200 a barrel though.

Oil hasn't been at 40 a barrel in almost 4 years. Seems like wishful thinking although I hope I am wrong.

[Cyco]

Goldman Sachs where the only group to forecast $100/barrel when price was $62 and they got ridiculed for being pessimistic. Will be interesting to see who is right this time.

[kingofthering]

Well... worst case scenario, we can always go drill off-shore.

[MRR]

Originally Posted by kingofthering

Well... worst case scenario, we can always go drill off-shore.

We have been for years off Texas in the gulf. It hasn't been very fruitful and won't even put a dent in the supply concerns.

[jcp123]

Hell I know it's here. I sell it every day!

Peak Lubricants - Motor Oils

[P4g4nite]

Originally Posted by MRR

Its not the same kind of oil if I am not mistaken. There is far less usable biomass than is needed to continue oil consumption at even present levels much less in the future.

Geez, I can't even make a decent Soylent petrol joke. I'm gonna go hand in my funny to the nearest authority and retire to a life of sobriety.