2004 F1 opinions and forecast

[Evil Ewok]

I would like everyone to take the poll, and add a comment to the thread based on what your predictions of this F1 series will be like. Will Ferrari win again? Or will there be an outsider come busting through to take the series?

I would love to see Renault (if they can get their shit straight compared to last year) or BMW to get on top, along with the McLaren team close behind, if not in first. Ferrari is most likely everyones bet for this year, and it's pretty obvious why, but I wouldn't mind seeing someone else be happy for a change. The BAR Honda seems fit this year, should be interesting to watch them as they try to get a solid year.

[artolis]

This season will be more difficult for Ferrari but I think that they will win once again one of two championships

[fpv_gtho]

im expecting great things from jaguar. webber and the R5 should be able to pull of some good results

[jameswithington]

I think Ferrari have to be the favourites. They should have a great car with all their experience and finance, and they undoubtedly have the best driver line-up. However, I don't think it will be easy for them with Kimi in the Mclaren being the biggest threat. Also rumour has it that the Michelin tyre is going to be better than the Bridgestone (Ferrari's choice of tyre), BAR even went so far as to cancel their contract with Bridgestone (which was due to run for at least one more year) so they could get their hands on the Michelins.

[NAZCA C2]

Ferrari will probably win again like they do every year but I hope Mclaren can do a little better than last year and win the championship. I think Kimi and DC can win if they have a good car.

[Dino Scuderia]

I think Ferrari will have a great chance this year due to their incredible reliability which will be priceless with the one engine rule.

I don't see any big surprises, I don't put much trust in test times therefor the BAR times don't raise my hopes for them. In addition the Honda engines have not recently been reliable.

If there was a surprise for me it would be to see Renault up front, then again I've pretty much been expecting them to maybe win a few this year.

McLaren is struggling and trying to develope that dual clutch, sounds like a recipe for breakdowns. Kimi's recent comments about the car didn't sound promising.

Like last year the outcome will be largely determined by tyres and B'stone have improved, their tyre design is more squared off like Michelin.

Sauber could be the spoiler taking points from some of the top 4 teams since they have a current Ferrari engine package and basically an F2003GA chassis.

[Matra et Alpine]

It will be David Coulthard's year.
( In-joke foir the F1 cogniscenti :) )

[Homem de Gelo]

Ferrari will, as usual, have Schumacher and reliability on their side. As long as Bridgestone gets the job done, they are the ones to beat. Barrichello is very promissing as usual, but he needs to find consistency and have more of his great weekends.

Williams has a potentially great car a reliability that only puts them behind Ferrari. Both drivers are strong, but too much equal. As happened in the last two seasons, they can very frequently steal points from each other, which should benefit McLaren and Ferrari, who don't lose too many points between their own drivers. Both Montoya and Ralf must have by now realized they commited far too many mistakes last season, they shouldn't repeat them.

McLaren is a great question. Nobody knows for sure how fast and reliable they are. Raikkonen, with his proved consistency and speed, is a strong threat to all other drivers on top teams and he is onw to be watched. He is now familiar to the pressure and tension of fighting for a title and he knows exactly what kind of mistakes not to commit. Coulthard is in almost the same position Barrichello is. He must find some more consistency and have some more of his good weekends if he expects to win the title.

Renault, as BAR, seems very strong in testing. Both teams have very promissing drivers, but they must first get rid of all reliability problems that haunted them during last season, because it already seems as if they have the speed to constantly fight for podium finishes and some races here and there.

[Homem de Gelo]

Oh, and I predict the WDC will go to either Ferrari or McLaren and WCC will go to either Ferrari or Williams.

[Dino Scuderia]

Wirdheim joined Jag today as third driver.

[Ferrari Tifosi]

I think Kimi Raikkonen will win the WDC, and i hope McLaren will win the WCC, but I think that is a long shot.

[Chinky_boi]

isnt mclaren partners with mercedes because its called mercedes mclaren?

[Matra et Alpine]

isnt mclaren partners with mercedes because its called mercedes mclaren?Same as wth BMW-Williams.

Mercedes are providing the engine.
McLaren are responsible for everything else !!

Money buys the name and writes the history :)

[byronleehk]

I think Ferrari will do it again this season BUT...I hope BAR can step up with their attack.

[motorsportnerd]

Only two weeks to go now... And I'll be in the crowd at the Aust GP this year. Can't wait.

Hopefully Montoya will be able to pull it off this year, but I have a feeling that the political situation in the Williams team won't be too comfortable for him since he's off next year.
So, realistically it will probably be Schumi v Kimi. In that case I'll back Schumi again. Looking at testing the BARs and Renaults could surprise, and hopefully we'll see Webber getting into the top 5 on occasions this year. Should be good...

[Alfahollic]

Its fairly hard to predict anything in formula one. I will go for Ferrari but i dont think they will win. I think Williams might win this year but not by much, as hard that is for me to say.

I would like Ferrari to use mich not the bridges but i hope bridgestone have done some major imporvemnts in the off season. It also gives us some variation on different tracks, with the different tyre suiting diferent tracks as was the case last year, that makes it more interesting for me.

M. Shumacher for 7? yes.

[Dino Scuderia]

How come we never hear of a "tire war" in any other series? It's never mentioned in IMSA, ALMS, LeMans, etc. I still think it is ridiculous that they use 13" wheels in F1. At the speeds they are driving and the g forces they're under, I would think that it would be more critical to have any suspension movement governed by the actual car suspension, and not by 6" of tire sidewall. Why aren't there 19" wheels with low profile tires? Isn't the current wheel/tire setup far removed from any actual real world application? I bet the car setup engineers would love to eliminate the tire sidewalls from their calculations and setups. I also think that if we went to low profile tires, they'd be less of a factor as far as any advantage over one another.

As race fans we shouldn't be discussing tires, we should be discussing what is the heart of racing, teams, drivers and cars. I don't want to think about which tire company can win, let them start there own series if they want to see who has the best tire.

[Matra et Alpine]

How come we never hear of a "tire war" in any other series? It's never mentioned in IMSA, ALMS, LeMans, etc.
because in other series there are many different approaches in suspension design, layout, weight distribution. These all make a big difference to the way a tyre works and are as variable.
Weather variability is anoter possible reason. Some series don't race in rain etc.
In close competition, there IS a tyre 'war'.
WRC tyres are as critical to success - but not as high-rpfile (!:)!) as F1.
Each manufacturer is doing their best - but budget means it doesn't get as nasty as the high-roller stakes of F1.

In F1, everything is within a few percentage of each teams capabilities.
So suddenly a tyre advatange is important.


I still think it is ridiculous that they use 13" wheels in F1.
Well that's the rules.
If they WERE allowed to be bigger then the speeds would increase.
F1 tyres in the 70s were massive monsters and stretched the materials sciences due to the profile.
That's the way it works at the pinnacle of any sport.

At the speeds they are driving and the g forces they're under, I would think that it would be more critical to have any suspension movement governed by the actual car suspension, and not by 6" of tire sidewall.
Nope.
A tyre will always flex and move - that's their job :)
A good designer will included this in the dynamics of the car chassis and suspension.
If they dont' then it won't work !!

Why aren't there 19" wheels with low profile tires? Isn't the current wheel/tire setup far removed from any actual real world application?
It's the rules.
When tyres were unrestricted, they just got wider and wider.
They had to do something so width limits became included in the specs,


I bet the car setup engineers would love to eliminate the tire sidewalls from their calculations and setups.
erm, NO. The tyre wall is closest to a baump and is the ONLY part of the car which can react quickly enough to absorb it. Solid tyres would transmit the force back to the damper. So it would likely neeed to be more complex with much smaller inital dampers to handle those quick movements. More weight - BAD :)

I also think that if we went to low profile tires, they'd be less of a factor as far as any advantage over one another.
They are on low profile - for the width of a tyre expected to do a job.
The street-craze to make very low profile tyres are OK for posing in car parks.
They are useless at handling cornering.
When the wheel camber changes during cornering an extremely low profile tyre cannot keep as much footprint on the road.
Watch the F1 slo-mos through corners and you can see them suffer the same problem.

As race fans we shouldn't be discussing tires, we should be discussing what is the heart of racing, teams, drivers and cars. I don't want to think about which tire company can win, let them start there own series if they want to see who has the best tire.
Well personally as a race fan I want to be discussing ALL the aspects of a team that makes them better - desgn, mechanics, strategy, engine, tyres, suspension, aerodynamics, drivers, tracks and yes sponsors :-)
It's the necessity of mdern sponsorship and journalism that we end up only able to talk of a tyre war.
If Ferrari weren't so obviously far ahead of the rest then it wouldn't be the tyres that would get attention ! It seems the other teams only have a chance when the tyres fail Ferrari ( and that's from a DC fan :( )

[Dino Scuderia]

You make some good points but still your arguement is weak in light of other forms of road racing do just fine with low profile 19" rims. If F1 would change the rules for this set up, it would only be a new challenge to the great engineers of the the F1 series and by no means would it be a negative to the racing.

I see no good reason for them to continue to use antiquated dimensions in wheels and tyres, it is the pennacle of technology form of racing, using the current tyre and wheel config is similar to reverting back to carbed engines.

[Matra et Alpine]

You make some good points but still your arguement is weak in light of other forms of road racing do just fine with low profile 19" rims. If F1 would change the rules for this set up, it would only be a new challenge to the great engineers of the the F1 series and by no means would it be a negative to the racing.

I see no good reason for them to continue to use antiquated dimensions in wheels and tyres, it is the pennacle of technology form of racing, using the current tyre and wheel config is similar to reverting back to carbed engines.
FIA Regs:
Formula One cars must have four, uncovered wheels, all made of the same metallic material. Front wheels must be between 305 and 355mm wide, the rears between 365 and 380mm.

With tyres fitted the wheels must be no more than 660mm in diameter (670mm with wet-weather tyres). Measurements are taken with tyres inflated to 1.4 bar.

First, note that FIA do not govern the wheel diameter, only the diameter of the tyre. So F1 designers can collaborate to provide the optimal tyre for an F1 team's wheel design.

OK, so we have max wheel width of 380mm ( ~ 15" wide )
and max diameter of 670mm ( ~25 1/2" diameter )

Find me 15" wide rims and I'll be impressed :) You'll struggle to get beyond 12 for most road car hubs.
Hhow many low profile tyres for 15" wide rims which have a maximum tyre diameter of 25" are there ?
NONE - and it's the laws of physics.... You can't construct a wheel with such a wide tread and low sidewall, the materials will distort at the wall junction.

Racing tyres use a different measuement. The are marked nominal tread width (mm), overall tyre diameter (mm) and bead diameter (in inches).
Spend a few minutes looking over http://www.dunloptyres.co.uk/site/tyres/motorsportRange/circuit/index.shtml and you can see the sizes availabel for racing today.
If you check out the CR82 on http://www.dunloptyres.co.uk/site/tyres/motorsportRange/historicVintage/index.shtml you'll also see pretty much the biggest tyres ever used in sports and F1.

Returning to posing-car-park sizes then yep, I can get 19" rims.
But I can't find any wider than 8". That would only take a 285mm tyre safely - so it isn't going to beat an F1 combination.

Lets imagine we can get 10" wide rims ( after all we COULD custom make them )
So a tyre for that would be 325mm tyres ( if they were made, I've not checked - I'm using the tyre size math here ). That tyre at a low 25 profile ( the lowest available ) ratio would need to be about 19". So I think the tyre you're suggesting is 'best' is a 325/25/19.

That would certainly look nice.
Lets put 3 degree of camber - not unreasonable on a race car - remember this is for going round corners quickly, not for posing :)
The sidewall is ~80mm high.
For the tyre to sit flat and give maximum grip, the inner wall on that tyre has to deform by 17mm. It has to give up that BEFORE it responds to bumps.
Am I getting over the role a tyre wall has and why smaller is not always best.

I don't want this to get too heavy so, I'm happy to point you to some historical and racing car setup links thath help explain setting up including the role of the tyre.

Beacuse in amongst it all it has to be remembered that the FIA are producing rules that have to be conformed to. Most of the rules introduced are in the interests of keeping the speeds down and the safety up :)

[Matra et Alpine]

You make some good points but still your arguement is weak in light of other forms of road racing do just fine with low profile 19" rims
Forgot to point out that they do it on a LOT smaller width rims.
Oha dn I've not included drag racing in the discussion as they are another whole ball game and their need for big sidewalls is for a whole different set of reasons.

[Dino Scuderia]

Regulations can be changed, and should be to reflect current technology in tyres/wheels. No one can convince me that it is not possible to design an F1 car that can run the same size tyres/wheels as Le Mans cars.

[Matra et Alpine]

Regulations can be changed, and should be to reflect current technology in tyres/wheels. No one can convince me that it is not possible to design an F1 car that can run the same size tyres/wheels as Le Mans cars.
Sorry it must have got missed in my replies.

F1 wheel/tyre size is controlled by FIA.
It's controlled to make it slower and safer.
Of course F1 designers could use bigger wheels and tyres.
But then the cars would be too fast to be able to race safely on any circuit in existance today.

The downforce an F1 could transfer into grip on big tyre footprint would make thema capable of cornering much faster than current. So run-offs aren't big engough, tubs aren't strong enough and walls are too close.

F1 is already losing audience because the fans cannot get near the interesting ( aka turns ) parts of the track. Faster speed would push them back another 50m. Bad :(

Anyway, I checked the ACO regs ( they control Le Mans )....

13.2 - Dimensions :
• Complete wheel measured horizontally at wheel hub level.
( there are 2 sizes listed for the 4 prototype classes )
13.2.1 - Width (maximum) : 16" 14"
13.2.2 - Diameter (maximum) : 28.5" 28"
13.5 - Rims :
13.5.1 - Front and rear diameter : 18" maximum.
(wish we could have fixed format fonts )

So prototypes - the most extreme Le Mans cars running today are limited to 18" rims and a 28" max diameter.
For a maximum width tyre that would be a ~35 profile.

For GT and GTS cars the sizes are ....
13.1.1 - Complete wheels (measurements to be made horizontally at wheel centre line level) :
Up to 1200 kg over 1200 kg
a/ Maximum width : 12" 14"
b/ Maximum diameter : 28" 28"
c13.1.2 - Rims :
a/ Maximum diameter : 18"

The tyres are narrower to reflect the different capabilities of the prototypes and GT cars.

What I'd like to see are some real numbers from the various Le Mans teams for the rim and tyre sizes they fit. Wider tyres cause major problems turning corners and can overheat easily. It's quite feasible that the team would run a narrower tyre than the specs to extend the tyre duration. 24 hour racing is a different matter to a sprint.

Anyone have figures for last years Le Mans teams on actual tyres used and life ??

[Matra et Alpine]

Anyone have figures for last years Le Mans teams on actual tyres used and life ??
Well I'm still up watching the Irish/Wales rugby game after drowning sorrows over the Scotland/England score - hey at least we played better and 3 of Englands tries were from lucky tips/bounces :)

Anyway, checked and the Audi R8R raced last year in ALMS and the year before at Le Mans was fitted with
Front: 13.5 x 18 inches
Rear: 14.5 x 18 inches
Tyres: Michelin Radial 33/65-18 (F) 37/71-18 (R)

This needs a bit of interpratation.
The wider tyre is 370mm of tread ( not tyre width )
The tyre diameter is 710mm

Converting some of these into 'street-car' tyre sizing gives
390/35-18

Not a huge diffrence in profile.
Width, yes, but hopefully I've covered the reasons why.

[Dino Scuderia]

Thanks for your input.

[fpv_gtho]

i feel like i can safely say im on both sides of the argument here. Matra's pointed out that with all the possible aspect ratio/tyre width's out there for all the different rim diameter's, whats being used in F1 is pretty close to meeting all the demands the tyres going to be put up against, whilst Dino's just stating that it would be good if F1 could switch to lower profile tyres with larger diameter rims.

i know here in the V8 Supercars, for the past 2 years theyve been using a Dunlop control tyre for both wet and dry. I'm not 100% sure on the tyre dimensions, but they fit onto 17 x 12 OZ racing or Speedline rims. they look as if theyve got at least a 60 aspect ratio as theyve got pretty high sidewalls. If youve ever seen a V8 Supercars race, you would notice how hard the cars are being driven around the corners, often right up onto the kerbs. there would easily be a couple of times per round that someones carride that much speed into a corner, clipped the kerb and theyve gone around the corner on 2 wheels. The overall diameter of each wheel would be similar to that of say a 30 aspect ratio tyre on a 19" rim, but if you were to compare the two of them on a race the latter would experience far more strees and the rims would probably chip etc

[chucky]

The tyres are the bigest aerodynamic problem for F-1.
How come we never hear of a "tire war" in any other series? It's never mentioned in IMSA, ALMS, LeMans, etc. I still think it is ridiculous that they use 13" wheels in F1. At the speeds they are driving and the g forces they're under, I would think that it would be more critical to have any suspension movement governed by the actual car suspension, and not by 6" of tire sidewall. Why aren't there 19" wheels with low profile tires? Isn't the current wheel/tire setup far removed from any actual real world application? I bet the car setup engineers would love to eliminate the tire sidewalls from their calculations and setups. I also think that if we went to low profile tires, they'd be less of a factor as far as any advantage over one another.

As race fans we shouldn't be discussing tires, we should be discussing what is the heart of racing, teams, drivers and cars. I don't want to think about which tire company can win, let them start there own series if they want to see who has the best tire.

[Dino Scuderia]

The tyres are the bigest aerodynamic problem for F-1.

Welcome!

I don't understand your response, any open wheel car has tyre aero problems no matter the tyre/wheel combination.

[chucky]

You are rigth, I should have say, the size of the wheel, tyres plus rims, plays huge role in cars aero.
Welcome!

I don't understand your response, any open wheel car has tyre aero problems no matter the tyre/wheel combination.

[Dino Scuderia]

The last day of testing for Ferrari has been cancelled due to snow/rain, so that's it til Melbourne.

Ferrari are behind on their testing developement, they were running wings mounted on the side of the air box yesterday.

[fpv_gtho]

anyone remember the first lap at the Australian Grand Prix in 2002?

[Dino Scuderia]

Looks like they got a few testing runs in afterall.

Just reported by gazzetta.it:

1'19"664 set by Schumi in the afternoon!!

That's 0.747 off the previous record set by MS in 2003 in the F2003-GA.

[Homem de Gelo]

And the records keep being smashed over and over. Can't wait for Melbourne...

[Ferrari Tifosi]

First lap of Melbourne in 2002, Barichello catches his front tires with R. Schumachers rears. Barichello then goes air-born.

[Alfahollic]

I f*cken hate melbourne their track is sh!t compared to ours. get the formula one back in Adelaide!!!!!!!!! Its the only thing we ever had, and melbourne had to take it. Pricks.

[fpv_gtho]

First lap of Melbourne in 2002, Barichello catches his front tires with R. Schumachers rears. Barichello then goes air-born.


i remember it more for Webber sneaking into the top 10 in a minardi of all things, and ending up finishing 5th

[Rusty]

My vote is for ferrari because I still think they are the team to beat. And if bridgestone and Kees do their work proparly I seem MS taking home an other Driver title.

Williams will probably take home the Constructors title although I hope that either Renault or BAR (long shot though) can take a big step forward and challenge the big 3.

[Ferrari Tifosi]

ahhh, great drive by Webber. I see him being a threat in the future. He did great things last year with a mediocre car.

[fpv_gtho]

well webbers been linked to pretty much all the major teams for the 2005 season....being a ford fan i hope he stays at jaguar but ive even heard people suggesting he might be the successor to M. Schumacher at Ferrari when his contract dries up with them. most common though would be hes going to Renault

[Deckard]

well webbers been linked to pretty much all the major teams for the 2005 season....being a ford fan i hope he stays at jaguar but ive even heard people suggesting he might be the successor to M. Schumacher at Ferrari when his contract dries up with them. most common though would be hes going to Renault

He's been quoted several times that he is going to stay at Jag till the end of his contract (end of 2005). However..... apparently there is a clause in his contract which states that if the car doesn't perform well enough to put him in a points position, he can break the contract. Which would mean he would most likely go to either Renault or Williams (assuming whinging Button doesn't get the seat).

[swainomac]

I am off to the melbourne on thursday for the gpand am really looking forward to seeing what the 2004 season has to offer. Its good to see that all the teams are actually using their 2004 cars for the 2004 season. It was always an anticlimax to see the big teams using their 2003 models for the first few races of the season.

Hopefully Williams will really step up this year and offer a real challenge to Ferrari. However Ferrari have been together as their current team since 1997 so its difficult to see them taking a nosedive this season. Schumacher will still be hungry, if he wasn't I can't see him doing it anymore. Ferrari's change in form will be when Schumacher leaves, as he will take alot of expertise with him (including Ross Brawn probably). Mclaren seem to be going to through a transition season and it will be a real test for Kimi Raikonnen if he can be competitive right at the top of the table this year.

The only achilles heel i can see that will dog Ferrari are their tyres. They are paying for Bridgestone devoting all their time to them in their quest for the World Championship. One team can only provide a limited amount of testing data.

However, things will shake themselves out on Sunday. It will be interesting to see how many finishers we get with this being the first weekend that the teams have ony been allowed one engine for the weekend. Effectively doubling the time they have to last.