Cyprus...

[roosterjuicer]

I'd really like to hear the European perspective on what is going on in Cyprus right now.

Obviously its a nightmare. My big concern, as an American, is the wider effects of a run on the banks in Cyprus on the larger European economy and world wide banking as a whole. If one bank fails, it can have a big effect.

Thoughts?

[d-quik]

My big concern, as an American...as an American you should just be concerned with not pissing off the middle east. Stop trying to police the world under the guise of "concern" and realise this banking issue will be rectified by a bunch of white collar goons just like every other banking issue in the past century (barring the two WWs). /endthread

[jcp123]

Cyprus is another in the European domino effect. However, if the Cypriot proposal to levy a tax on deposits and limit withdrawals goes through, I think that would have just as devastating an effect on banking in Europe as a bank failing. Fearing a similar tax at home, a lot of folks might start closing out their accounts elsewhere. That could lead banks which are stable but on the edge to go over that edge. Cyprus does not worry me as much, simply because the cash injections needed to stabilise it - provided the EU follows roughly the same formula as they have elsewhere - would be a relative drop in the bucket. EU lawmakers might actually agree to just go ahead and get Cyprus done so they can get back to bickering about Spain and Greece.

[Ferrer]

In terms of size Cyprus' economy isn't quite large enough to bog down the UE. At least not as much as Portugal, Ireland or Greece have; nevermind Spain or Italy.

The problem with Cyprus' bailout is that the levy on deposits could set a very dangerous precedent. And this would indeed be devastating.

[roosterjuicer]

The problem with Cyprus' bailout is that the levy on deposits could set a very dangerous precedent. And this would indeed be devastating.

That's my concern. Especially if one or two banks there fail.

[Ferrer]

That's my concern. Especially if one or two banks there fail.
Well it still hasn't been approved by the parliament. However if it isn't, Cyprus could be out of the Euro or do a messt default and those aren't particularly enticing situations either.

It's a delicate scenery that's for sure.

The vote will be held tomorrow early in the afternoon.

[roosterjuicer]

Well it still hasn't been approved by the parliament. However if it isn't, Cyprus could be out of the Euro or do a messt default and those aren't particularly enticing situations either.

It's a delicate scenery that's for sure.

The vote will be held tomorrow early in the afternoon.

What's the sentiment in Spain on it right now? Are people in favor of the tax, against, do they think it will happen there?

[henk4]

Cyprus has always been a tax haven for the rich, some consider it to be a cowboy/banana republic. If they want to belong to the grown-up world they have to pay a price, and preferably the price has to be paid by the people who used the Cyprus banking system to avoid taxes in other countries. Otherwise they might want to consider to join forces with the Cayman Islands.

[Ferrer]

What's the sentiment in Spain on it right now? Are people in favor of the tax, against, do they think it will happen there?
People are against it. There's no panic, but we are paying attention to see what's the final outcome. Then things my change from calm to... who knows what actually...

Cyprus has always been a tax haven for the rich, some consider it to be a cowboy/banana republic. If they want to belong to the grown-up world they have to pay a price, and preferably the price has to be paid by the people who used the Cyprus banking system to avoid taxes in other countries. Otherwise they might want to consider to join forces with the Cayman Islands.
Some say that it is a move against the very numerous Russian deposits of dubious provenance in the island's banks...

[jcp123]

So far all of the reports I have heard (scant coverage in the US of international proceedings, so it isn't many) say that people are very much against this move.

[henk4]

Some say that it is a move against the very numerous Russian deposits of dubious provenance in the island's banks...

The Russians came much later, the so-called Cyprus route has been very popular in a great number of West european countries for a long time. Cyprus is actually not a country but a legalised money laundering machine. You can say they have been stealing money from other countries that should normally been paid as taxes. I cannot remember having heard the Cyprus population protesting against these practices, because it gave them an income too. Now that machine has faltered, it is only that they also contribute to the repairs.
In the past the Cyprus flag has also been notoriously attractive for the less scrupulous shipowners, who don't like to pay the cost for fully. complying to international standards.

The latest news is that the Cyprus government has been allowed by the EC to vary the levy system a little bit, let's hope that they take money form the large accounts, and not small deposits say up to 30-40k Euros.

[Ferrer]

The Russians came much later, the so-called Cyprus route has been very popular in a great number of West european countries for a long time. Cyprus is actually not a country but a legalised money laundering machine. You can say they have been stealing money from other countries that should normally been paid as taxes. I cannot remember having heard the Cyprus population protesting against these practices, because it gave them an income too. Now that machine has faltered, it is only that they also contribute to the repairs.
In the past the Cyprus flag has also been notoriously attractive for the less scrupulous shipowners, who don't like to pay the cost for fully. complying to international standards.

The latest news is that the Cyprus government has been allowed by the EC to vary the levy system a little bit, let's hope that they take money form the large accounts, and not small deposits say up to 30-40k Euros.
Latest news I've heard this morning on the radio is that deposits under 100k € would be safe, but that they will take a higher percentage from deposits over 100k €.

[roosterjuicer]

You can say they have been stealing money from other countries that should normally been paid as taxes.

The latest news is that the Cyprus government has been allowed by the EC to vary the levy system a little bit, let's hope that they take money form the large accounts, and not small deposits say up to 30-40k Euros.

Interesting take Henk, and I can't say I disagree. I'm sure there would be a lot less pushback if the levy only hit the illegitimate accounts. Of course, it would be difficult to determine which accounts are legit and which arent.

The last I heard was the smaller tax would hit accounts over 25k and the larger would hit accounts over 100k.

While I don't think 25k in savings counts as "small account" i think this is a good move that will stop a lot of people from making a run on the banks. I dont know what kind of savings people retire on there but 25k in an American retiree's savings account would not be unusual in the middle class.

[Matra et Alpine]

Most European countries ( cant be sure for Cyprus ) provide the pension arrangement via the government. So the 25k in a US retiree account is really in the governments hands having been collected via taxes.
Private pensions aren't historically big in the UK but have been forced on many since Thatcher and her cronies raided large company pension schemes :(
Not many British pensioners have those kind of sums and if they do they are then "means tested" for certain health benefits. Leading to many having to spend all of it for basic care in England before they will get assistance from the state. ( In Scotland we still provide free care for pensioners - and most Scots are happy to do so for the better good )

[jcp123]

Well, looks like they aborted the bank fee plan.

[Kitdy]

Cyprus is another in the European domino effect. However, if the Cypriot proposal to levy a tax on deposits and limit withdrawals goes through, I think that would have just as devastating an effect on banking in Europe as a bank failing. Fearing a similar tax at home, a lot of folks might start closing out their accounts elsewhere. That could lead banks which are stable but on the edge to go over that edge. Cyprus does not worry me as much, simply because the cash injections needed to stabilise it - provided the EU follows roughly the same formula as they have elsewhere - would be a relative drop in the bucket. EU lawmakers might actually agree to just go ahead and get Cyprus done so they can get back to bickering about Spain and Greece.

Someone's been reading The Economist!


So far all of the reports I have heard (scant coverage in the US of international proceedings, so it isn't many) say that people are very much against this move.

I don't bother with newspapers anymore. Even our paper of record, The Globe and Mail, is shit.

[LTSmash]

The news on Cyprus was brutal today... Especially for crude markets. WTI went down about $1.60ish and the Brent spread closed even more, and that was even on a good economic news day for the US (housing starts increased).

Dropped me quick when the news hit and now I'm holding contracts overnight... :eek: Luckily, there was a good recovery in Asian trading market hours. The consensus from some analysts is that this "may" not bring a huge burden on the worldwide economy as a whole... you could say that $10 billion is piss money on this scale. At least not on the degree that Greece has made on European markets.

World markets seem to be making a recovery, albeit at a snails pace. If EMs can get it together we might be seeing a rise in worldwide industrial production. That is if interest rates and inflation don't bog down the BRICs and Europe.

[Kitdy]

Why didn't you short crude then!?

[LTSmash]

Why didn't you short crude then!?

Because I have a bad habit of not taking a trading loss... EVER (even if it's only a few cents on the contracts). On occasion, I'll hold positions forever if it goes sour and wait for the rebound. It's a bad habit, I know. But I've been on a heater for the past few months and don't want to lose my momentum (I think I just did today, though)... Oh well, I just checked the price and I'm about 10 cent from my limit order so I'm not too scared anymore.

[jcp123]

I love shorting. It feels like cheating.

[LTSmash]

I love shorting. It feels like cheating.

Not when your on a crude oil account. That's unlimited losses accelerated by 100x. Scary stuff when momentum shifts... since the market is always trying to pull the price up. But I know what you mean. I was on the phone with another portfolio manager the other week and he shorted crude at 96 a few weeks ago. What a call.

[jcp123]

Someone's been reading The Economist!



I don't bother with newspapers anymore. Even our paper of record, The Globe and Mail, is shit.

I get it for free, it's interesting, and is a hell of a lot more informative about what's going on outside of our ivory tower here in the US than most anything else I've read. Plus they invented the Big Mac Index, case closed. So I suppose my skull full of mush has at least for now been put in some kind of economics alignment!

[Kitdy]

Because I have a bad habit of not taking a trading loss... EVER (even if it's only a few cents on the contracts). On occasion, I'll hold positions forever if it goes sour and wait for the rebound. It's a bad habit, I know. But I've been on a heater for the past few months and don't want to lose my momentum (I think I just did today, though)... Oh well, I just checked the price and I'm about 10 cent from my limit order so I'm not too scared anymore.


I love shorting. It feels like cheating.


Not when your on a crude oil account. That's unlimited losses accelerated by 100x. Scary stuff when momentum shifts... since the market is always trying to pull the price up. But I know what you mean. I was on the phone with another portfolio manager the other week and he shorted crude at 96 a few weeks ago. What a call.

Stop speaking that nonsense language! What is all that gibberish?

[Kitdy]

I get it for free, it's interesting, and is a hell of a lot more informative about what's going on outside of our ivory tower here in the US than most anything else I've read. Plus they invented the Big Mac Index, case closed. So I suppose my skull full of mush has at least for now been put in some kind of economics alignment!

It's better for inside US news as well. It is just, better.

[jcp123]

I like the way they write, too - not so dumbed down, they assume you have a working knowledge of the basics. And also not written in greek, either. Also something you would likely not see from a publication in the US, they make no pretense of trying to be unbiased - they put forth their opinion, when needed, back it up with why they believe it to be the right call, and let you decide. I don't always agree with them but respect them greatly for that. I admit that it and public radio have been most of my source of information on the eurozone stuff.

BUT

It wasn't giving me a good sense of the feeling on the street. Hence my post, and I think a similar curiosity prompted this one as well.

[Ferrer]

Stop speaking that nonsense language! What is all that gibberish?
Don't worry, Ferrer to the rescue!

16 valve, twin carb, oversteer, double-declutch, six manual, tyre smoke.

There you go. Everything is well now.

Or something.

[Cyco]

Because I have a bad habit of not taking a trading loss... EVER (even if it's only a few cents on the contracts). On occasion, I'll hold positions forever if it goes sour and wait for the rebound. It's a bad habit, I know. But I've been on a heater for the past few months and don't want to lose my momentum (I think I just did today, though)... Oh well, I just checked the price and I'm about 10 cent from my limit order so I'm not too scared anymore.

That has the potential to make you either loose lots of sleep, or worse.

I'm a chartist. I don't care what it is, I can and will trade it (so long as my account will take the stop placement risk)


I get it for free, it's interesting, and is a hell of a lot more informative about what's going on outside of our ivory tower here in the US than most anything else I've read. Plus they invented the Big Mac Index, case closed. So I suppose my skull full of mush has at least for now been put in some kind of economics alignment!

I subscribe to the Australian versions of these Economic News and Ideas on Debt, the Market, Gold, Oil, and Investing. (http://dailyreckoning.com/) and Investment News: Money Morning - Only the News You Can Profit From (http://moneymorning.com/)

Cove a lot of non-mainstream stuff. Some of it can seem a little alarmist, other stuff just a different way of looking at the problem. The later are good articles.


Stop speaking that nonsense language! What is all that gibberish?

You are obviously failing to keep up to date on LTROs, ZIRPs, risk on/off, and a variety of other acronyms...

[LTSmash]

That has the potential to make you either loose lots of sleep, or worse.

Yeah, it was one of those nights...

EDIT: But my limit order was reached at about 2:00 AM last night, so all in all I had a good day when all said and done. You say you can trade anything? I'm sure you don't mean momentum trading on equities and the such. I prefer crude for the large volatility... and it's my area of expertise as I get paid to do this awful job...

[henk4]

Interesting take Henk, and I can't say I disagree.

Did it hurt? ;)
Anyway apparently the totals savings amount on Cypriot banks is reported to be about 68 billion euros, of which 31 is for the account of Cyprus citizens and the remaining 37 are foreign deposits, mainly from Russia, Lebanon and the Ukraine.
However, given that the number of Cypriots is about 870000 thousand, of which about 270000 live in the Turkish part, the total amount of savings for each Greek Cypriot seems to be well over 50000 Euro. No wonder that taking some of that too looks attractive.

[roosterjuicer]

Yeah, it was one of those nights...

EDIT: But my limit order was reached at about 2:00 AM last night, so all in all I had a good day when all said and done. You say you can trade anything? I'm sure you don't mean momentum trading on equities and the such. I prefer crude for the large volatility... and it's my area of expertise as I get paid to do this awful job...

Ohhhh dear...I didn't know you boys were into stock trading. The RJ has been known to dabble from time to time. Although I primarily see myself as more of an "investor" than a trader. I have bought a few bank shares during the down days relating to Cyprus. Regardless, prepare to be bombarded with stock related threads from here out.

[LTSmash]

Ohhhh dear...I didn't know you boys were into stock trading. The RJ has been known to dabble from time to time. Although I primarily see myself as more of an "investor" than a trader. I have bought a few bank shares during the down days relating to Cyprus. Regardless, prepare to be bombarded with stock related threads from here out.

I don't do stock trading. I'm not a fan of the low volatility and the fundamental research for equities is... well... boring. I deal primarily in crude oil derivatives. Lots of leverage, lots of volume and lots of executions. It's far more hands on than the buy and hold type deals that many other investment management firms do with stocks and mutual funds. The YTD performance that we have managed with oil could not even be achieved with equities... but the stress level is through the roof.

[Matra et Alpine]

Morally wrong and never what was intended when markets - financial and physical - were first developed.

It's why the modern world is doomed as we deem making money by gambling is the highest challenge. Designing something new, unique, more effective, lower cost is more "productive".

Sorry LT, but the gambling mindset got us into this last problem and because the governments bailed out and protected the "system" it is destined to happen again :(
It will likely only be solved when it completely collapses the world economy :(

:) discuss :)

[LTSmash]

Sorry LT, but the gambling mindset got us into this last problem and because the governments bailed out and protected the "system" it is destined to happen again :(
It will likely only be solved when it completely collapses the world economy :(

:) discuss :)

I know where you're coming from when you say that. In my defense, what we do is not quite gambling in the strictest sense of the word. And our firm is not some powerbank in the back pockets of lawmakers, so we don't have "Too Big To Fail" to back us up. But regulations are there for what we do. And, we're not just throwing darts at a board here; there is a methodical process to what we are doing.

I guess I could give the stock answer everyone says: "I provide liquidity."

[Matra et Alpine]

Every derivatives market is gambling. Just with a little more limits and controls on what is on offer :)

The "methodical process" though is still based on estimation of what many other potential buyers are wishing to do in their bits and options.

I like my whisky neat and pure, "liquidity" just waters things down.
PRODUCTION roolz .... or it would if the money in "stocks" hadn't now been hijacked as a financial product in it's own right and decisions and actions made to increase "perceived value" in the market rather than true growth/improvement in results that matter.

Whilst I accept that smaller brokers and individuals aren't as "damaging" and the goliaths in the market, but eacn option is a straw on the camels back.

However, "free world" so best wishes.

[LTSmash]

Physical goods are a little bit different on the liquidity front. Yes, what I do is speculation. But many others in the same market are actually hedging prices for long term fluctuations. (i.e. American Airlines, Cargill, FedEx and Exxon are buying and selling the same product to lock in prices for the future so they get a good price that they don't have to pass on to the consumer by raising their* prices. Myself and many others can give them the price they want because we keep the spread small.)

I'm not going to defend this idea of free market principles. Is it a little crooked? Yes. Is it perfect? God no. However, this is my career path at the moment and I'm not taking advantage of anyone or screwing people over like other large financial institutions do. Get in while it's good, get out while I'm hot... then I can pursue my real passion.

[Kitdy]

Get in while it's good, get out while I'm hot... then I can pursue my real passion.

Whittling wooden replicas of 1930s GP cars?

[LTSmash]

Whittling wooden replicas of 1930s GP cars?

As long as it's in a peaceful place far away from where I am right now. I'm just chasing a quiet life.

[Matra et Alpine]

tbh once you get "the quiet life" you then fill it with expensive past times that need even more money. ( 2 horses, 5 cars, 2 full championships, 3 sets of tyres and an A610 engine and restoration screwed this years 'disposable' :) ) It's the "other Parkinsons law" .... fun activities costs increase to consume the funds available !!

Agree 100% with you LT on the goods (and currency). That's why all these started out. BUT of course "clever" guys working out they could then speculate and never even sniff ( or pay for :) ) the goods and the corruption began. By the time we're seeing options on the market trends it's immoral. My solution is an easy one ... you can speculate on ANYTHING as long as at some point you do actually pay for it AND you also physically TOUCH it. Then the effort and costs to try to use it a a profiteering vehicle make it ineffective and prevents distortion of the market for those who HAVE to do it for their business :) :)

[jcp123]

That's why I'd want to be one of those grey-market goods traders who owns a bar somewhere in Thailand.

For you Trekkies, Quark on DS9 has the kind of business I'd love to have.

[LTSmash]

tbh once you get "the quiet life" you then fill it with expensive past times that need even more money. ( 2 horses, 5 cars, 2 full championships, 3 sets of tyres and an A610 engine and restoration screwed this years 'disposable' :) ) It's the "other Parkinsons law" .... fun activities costs increase to consume the funds available !!

Ehh, I just want to propose to this person I want to spend the rest of my life with... and live "that kind" of quiet life. South of France or a tropical island; that will do.

[roosterjuicer]

Morally wrong and never what was intended when markets - financial and physical - were first developed.

It's why the modern world is doomed as we deem making money by gambling is the highest challenge. Designing something new, unique, more effective, lower cost is more "productive".



Out of curiosity, is this a common mindset in Europe? I have read a couple articles about the pushback from Europeans on "short sellers" and derivatives trading but I'm more interested in what "normal" people think?

The average American doesn't actually know what it means to short a stock, much less what a derivative is. Idiots on the left are against it and idiots on the right are for it, but neither of them knows why or what exactly they are for or against.

As far as myself. I very rarely short stocks, I only do so when a massive increase seems insane to me. When I do get short, its generally only in small amounts...fun money as it were. As to derivatives, I occasionally purchase options contracts as a hedge, but this is few and far between.

Where I saw it a lot was when I practiced law. I dealt with a lot of livestock litigation. Seemingly unsophisticated farmers were protecting themselves with put and call contracts. Don't judge a book by its cover I suppose.

LT...what exactly do you do?

[LTSmash]

LT...what exactly do you do?

Crude oil's the game, LTSmash is the name. ;) .... I'm an oil trader for a CTA/hedge fund. I handle the high leverage accounts. That's about it... But I'd rather be doing something else. This job is going to give me a heart attack.

[Matra et Alpine]

yep, rooster, but that has to be countered by the demonising of all "bankers" - the media in the UK don't differentiate the good from bad in banking/investing. Headlines are easier by labelling them all the same ! So it is true but skewed by backlash against this current government. London became one of the largest financial market by virtue of the massive banking and insurance companies building massive portfolios to gamble with and using it aggressively ... falling in to the myth Wall St promoted, and caught holding the toxic stuff having been talked in to signing up !!!

In general, in the UK the vast majority don't think it moral to bet on whether a price will be higher - or worse - lower in the future. Equally there is a recognition that "those with money" use the system to profit and the barriers to entry are too high for those who don't/ This is a re-incarnation of the class-system that was being eroded for many decades but the recent support of banks who gambled but not manufacturers who work hard. At times I do think the UK is close to "la revolution" like never seen since the Bastille was stormed :)

I invest stocks in businesses I believe in and NOT to make a quick buck. Looking for the long term good. Realise that I've "failed" to make a lot of £££ over the years by spotting and sharing trends that could have made money on but my morals limit it.

[henk4]

In general, in the UK the vast majority don't think it moral to bet on whether a price will be higher - or worse - lower in the future.

unless of course the betters put their own money on risk rather than that of the innocent savings account holders....

[Ferrer]

It's now official that deposits over 100k will be levied in Cyprus.

Mr. Jeroen Dijsselbloem (Eurogroup's president) has decided to say that this could be replicated on other European countries.

Result? The Ibex35 has fallen massively.

Things are not looking good. :(

[henk4]

It's now official that deposits over 100k will be levied in Cyprus.

Mr. Jeroen Dijsselbloem (Eurogroup's president) has decided to say that this could be replicated on other European countries.

Result? The Ibex35 has fallen massively.

Things are not looking good. :(

not every other country has such an oversized banking sector as Cyprus...they have been trying to let us pay for the mess that they produced themselves by creating a rather dubious banking sector, and now it is game over...

Edit: Dijsselbloem has now stated that Cyprus is NOT a blueprint for other countries.

[Ferrer]

not every other country has such an oversized banking sector as Cyprus...they have been trying to let us pay for the mess that they produced themselves by creating a rather dubious banking sector, and now it is game over...
The problem is the theoretical door it opened, the door of pandora's box; but...

Edit: Dijsselbloem has now stated that Cyprus is NOT a blueprint for other countries.
This has to be one of the worst managed crisis' in the whole of human history. If I was a foreign investor I would even touch Europe with a barge pole...

[henk4]

The problem is the theoretical door it opened, the door of pandora's box; but...

This has to be one of the worst managed crisis' in the whole of human history. If I was a foreign investor I would even touch Europe with a barge pole...

Perhaps it will help in scaring off the kind of "investors" that want to earn money in a rather speculative way...

[Matra et Alpine]

Perhaps it will help in scaring off the kind of "investors" that want to earn money in a rather speculative way...
Given the amount of Russian "invester" money in Cyprus the worry is where will they go now ??

[jcp123]

Given the amount of Russian "invester" money in Cyprus the worry is where will they go now ??

I have jokingly wondered what the Russian Mafia does next...

[Ferrer]

I have jokingly wondered what the Russian Mafia does next...
Some say Andorra. And Luxembourg.

[jcp123]

I was thinking in terms of, you know, mob stuff. They can't threaten a whole country!

[Kitdy]

Out of curiosity, is this a common mindset in Europe? I have read a couple articles about the pushback from Europeans on "short sellers" and derivatives trading but I'm more interested in what "normal" people think?

The average American doesn't actually know what it means to short a stock, much less what a derivative is. Idiots on the left are against it and idiots on the right are for it, but neither of them knows why or what exactly they are for or against.

As far as myself. I very rarely short stocks, I only do so when a massive increase seems insane to me. When I do get short, its generally only in small amounts...fun money as it were. As to derivatives, I occasionally purchase options contracts as a hedge, but this is few and far between.

Where I saw it a lot was when I practiced law. I dealt with a lot of livestock litigation. Seemingly unsophisticated farmers were protecting themselves with put and call contracts. Don't judge a book by its cover I suppose.

LT...what exactly do you do?

I fell asleep.


Crude oil's the game, LTSmash is the name. ;) .... I'm an oil trader for a CTA/hedge fund. I handle the high leverage accounts. That's about it... But I'd rather be doing something else. This job is going to give me a heart attack.

I... I dunno. I just think there is something kinda scummy of being in the business of money.

Q: What do you do?

A: Make money!

Q: How?

A: Complex financial interactions that are of dubious benefit to all humans!

[LTSmash]

I... I dunno. I just think there is something kinda scummy of being in the business of money.

Q: What do you do?

A: Make money!

Q: How?

A: Complex financial interactions that are of dubious benefit to all humans!

Scummy... Yeah, because I'm the "vampire squid" who ruins the lives of others by offering crummy loans and building financial instruments designed to fail that I pitch to unknowing investors.

Paint me with a broad brush why don't you.

[Kitdy]

Scummy... Yeah, because I'm the "vampire squid" who ruins the lives of others by offering crummy loans and building financial instruments designed to fail that I pitch to unknowing investors.

Paint me with a broad brush why don't you.

Nah nah, it's a negative stereotype ingrained in me from my contrarian nature and healthy skepticism of those driven to their jobs not by passion but by desire for material wealth and status.

Individuals buck the trend, and you seem to be a solid person. This was not meant as a personal attack on you, just as a series of personal attacks on my own version of a professional/business class that I see as hollow shells as humans driven by indoctrination and parental pressure (for selfish purposes) to succeed materially.

[LTSmash]

This was not meant as a personal attack on you, just as a series of personal attacks on my own version of a professional/business class that I see as hollow shells as humans driven by indoctrination and parental pressure (for selfish purposes) to succeed materially.

Selfish or not; these are people too, with lives, problems, interests and families they support. Humans will be humans and go after what they want... for some it's money I guess.

[Kitdy]

Selfish or not; these are people too, with lives, problems, interests and families they support. Humans will be humans and go after what they want... for some it's money I guess.

The question that I pose is: is this the natural way of things, or has modern capitalism indoctrinated and distorted us so much as a species that we don't even want what is good for us anymore?

I have gone back and forth on this for years but I have figured it out. Money simply does not buy happiness. If you have what you want, then you are happy. If you have close friendships, a lover, recreation time, can achieve your goals, can start a family, have financial security (=! wealth), you can be happy. A comfortable living with a job I enjoy and am passionate about, free time, a romantic and sexual partner, having the ability to absorb knowledge, and living within my means is a happy life to me, not working 60-80 hours a week in a stressful job making 250k+ a year as a doctor, lawyer, busisnessman or what have you.

The Buddhists have it right to some extent. If you free yourself from want then you will be happy.

LTSmash, you seem to have a passion for economics - genuinely - but you do not seem to enjoy your current job.

Why are you doing it?

EDIT: And what does this have to do with my 100k+ Euro of laundered money in the Popular Bank of Cyprus?!

[roosterjuicer]

Money simply does not buy happiness.

It does buy Ferrari's though :D

[roosterjuicer]

But I'd rather be doing something else. This job is going to give me a heart attack.

Check out Venture Capital. I have never been happier. No joke, come Sunday afternoon, I am itching to get back to work.

[roosterjuicer]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2013/03/26/europe-reels-in-shock-as-politician-tells-the-truth/

Any word on this from our Euro insiders?

[Matra et Alpine]

Yeah, we're not panicking. it seems the US media is tho' !!

The hand of Fox to put down socialist Europe ????? :) :)

Don't see the problem, it IS an issue that Cyprus has a skewed banking setup with few large holders in country and lots of outside money held in country for "other" reasons :)
Trying to come up with a solution that recognises that is important and the suggestion that the model of a tax on the larger amounts doesn't seem unreasonable. The alternatives are the nation funding to protect foreign investments.

This is no different really to Iceland banking crash. They TRIED to let foreign money in the country for a quick buck to fall. BUT had their arms strongly twisted up their bakcs by many - mostly the UK who are full of financial carpet-baggers !! But they did let the banks fall.

Compare Iceland with others now. Those who protected their banks are in stagnation and carry huge public debt through state ownership of bank assets. Iceland let them collapse , the investors lost lots. NOW they are growing. They don't have silly financial tools being created to support ongoing unsafe banks. Cleared the problem by one swift(ish) act. We (UK) are bleeding debt to cover the support we gave the shareholders and large depositors of the UK banks. I'd rather have seen a 10% rake off the top of my bank holdings as a one off rather than this increasing costs, increasing tax, decreasing confidence and growth we have now.

Go for it I say.

[Matra et Alpine]

Paint me with a broad brush why don't you.
In the UK LT there is a largely held view of that.
Of course here it's because the same people who caused the issue are protected, seek MORE protection and continue to take massive risks and pay massive bonuses when it doesn't fail too badly and no punishment when it fails worse !!
I think you need to repeat your moral high ground and do "sensible" invesments for "reasonable" returns and you can be proud to say you manage investments. BUT hwo many around you are the same ?
It's their tar that's falling on your Armani :) :)

[LTSmash]

LTSmash, you seem to have a passion for economics - genuinely - but you do not seem to enjoy your current job.

Why are you doing it?

It's a means to an end. Simple as that. Going to find that quiet life somehow.


Check out Venture Capital. I have never been happier. No joke, come Sunday afternoon, I am itching to get back to work.

Too many boardroom meetings and analyzing way more financial statements than I would care for; but I'm sure it's a riot for the true finance guys (I'm not one of them). Plus, climbing that ladder to reach the top of the totem pole takes longer. VC and PE hierarchy isn't as much of a meritocracy; in a sense. With what I do, It's all in my PnL... which is VERY strong I might add. ;);)


I think you need to repeat your moral high ground and do "sensible" invesments for "reasonable" returns and you can be proud to say you manage investments. BUT hwo many around you are the same ?

Not many. Most people in this business are superficial, pretentious bastards... x100.

[Matra et Alpine]

+1 lt :)

[LTSmash]

Bank of Cyprus’s Customers May Lose as Much as 60% on Deposits (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-30/bank-of-cyprus-s-customers-may-lose-as-much-as-60-on-deposits.html)

Going to be a roller coaster tomorrow for US markets I imagine.

EDIT: Link fixed.

[jcp123]

Russia should be recapitalising their banks, considering the situation with their depositors...

[henk4]

Russia should be recapitalising their banks, considering the situation with their depositors...

Russian black money is unlikely to be repatriated to mother Russia...as Medvedyev said: The Cypriots are stealing money from the Russians that had already been stolen....

[Matra et Alpine]

LT it was back on the 25th that this was seen as pretty much the choice and the exchange guys certainly factored it in then as the drop showed.

Whether some are slower and only picking it up on April Fools day would surprise me :)

[LTSmash]

LT it was back on the 25th that this was seen as pretty much the choice and the exchange guys certainly factored it in then as the drop showed.

It's a little different when you trade daily volatility. My executions aren't made to forecast something a week away; if they were my strategy would be ruined. I trade on the information at the current moment in time. I trade momentum more or less, not two week forecasts.

[Matra et Alpine]

Yeah, crazy to see it take a surge at start of the day , to the have sense return and the decline from last week continue at "reasonable" rate.

Things like the peak this morning are what upset me as most likely caused by hedge bets on rates and folks not in the know getting caught out :(

[jcp123]

When I played the stock market simulators, that's what I was doing - watch news feed, and trade accordingly. Was able to lock in a solid 1% per week that way.

[LTSmash]

When I played the stock market simulators, that's what I was doing - watch news feed, and trade accordingly. Was able to lock in a solid 1% per week that way.

Yeah, equities just don't have the volatility and leverage though for large returns. 10-15% a week (sometimes in a single day...) compounded over year can be achieved in the more volume based derivatives; if you know what you're doing.

[jcp123]

Which I don't, I just ride the wave. Short bad news, long the good news. Pretty simplistic but fairly successful for an admitted amateur.

[LTSmash]

Short bad news

Even that takes skill to do properly. Problem with holding short positions is that the market is always looking for upward momentum after bad news hits. Unless it's a long term macro outlook, never hold a short position for too long because it can snap out of a downward trend really quickly.

[jcp123]

Even that takes skill to do properly. Problem with holding short positions is that the market is always looking for upward momentum after bad news hits. Unless it's a long term macro outlook, never hold a short position for too long because it can snap out of a downward trend really quickly.

Yeah, my instincts were never to hold short. Usually came out ok, once in a while got burned if I was unable to check 'em during the day.

[LTSmash]

Usually came out ok, once in a while got burned if I was unable to check 'em during the day.

That's the problem with the retail side of investing (or burning your money as I like to think of it). People hear stories of how others made a killing on stocks (mostly old stories from the late 90s where a monkey could pick a stock from a hat and still be profitable) and want throw some money at it thinking they will have the same success. Problem is, many of these people don't have knowledge of the market and they just let it sit without constant daily monitoring of positions. Then they blow up and have to liquidate their kids 529.

Holding a position is stressful as hell when you're away from the computer with access to an account. If you can't treat your "investments" as a full time job then you shouldn't be doing it on your own... pay a professional to manage your funds because the everyman wont win in most cases.

[Cyco]

I don't do much stock trading, mainly ForEx, and commodities.

I have no care, nor preference for short, or long positions. I think it is far more of a mental issue for the trader than any real problem with going short (however with ForEx any trade is a long/short pair every time).

I also have no stress about holding positions for days, weeks, or even months when near or far from a computer. All my trades are opened with an attached stop, and it is never more than 1% of account equity away from the entry. I place the stop where I want it, then calculate how big a position I can take.

I only average 5ish% per month, but I also have no stress and trade less then 30mins/day. I have had monthly returns in excess of 80% though.

[LTSmash]

mainly ForEx, and commodities.

....

I also have no stress about holding positions for days, weeks, or even months when near or far from a computer.

I get that the 1% stop/loss (I'll assume you use a trailing stop) will cut out huge losses but daily momentum on commodities (crude in my case) is between 1-2% of the underlying 95% of the time. You'd practically hit that stop/loss order in every 20 minutes if you walked away from your computer; depending on the leverage you took. Unless you have some long term outlook on the FX pair or commodity in question I wouldn't hold it over night or even a week at that. For me, the only time I hold over night is if I got pinched in a bad entry and it dropped like a stone and have enough information to indicate that it will bounce the following morning... has only happened twice this year for me... which is good for my sanity. :D

I don't know how you do it but I couldn't hold that much leverage for an extended period of time. Then again, I'm buying large bundles of contracts relative to AUM. So, the risk/reward is huge, but I cannot afford to not be stressed. On my toes nonstop...

[Cyco]

http://portphillippublishing.com.au/images/MPR20130520bl.jpg

Interesting chart showing the price floors that OPEC will likely try and maintain.