Shipping lines are the key beneficiaries of the booming Australian car market. Imports are at record highs and exports of Australian-made cars are strong as well. Trouble is we're buying fewer home-made cars which will have far-reaching consequences
Otto Insider
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Dredging operations in Port Phillip Bay should speed up, if not increase in scope, if car sales results for YTD April 2007 are any guide. Australian appetite for imports has never been this strong, and foreign buyers' taste for Australian cars is equally ravenous.
Quite a dichotomy, huh? Maybe the world loves an import. Shipping companies sure do. So much for the "Not Invented Here" syndrome. Let's reclassify that as the "Not Assembled Here" syndrome.
Otto's tip for investing wisely: Buy shares in ports and shipping companies.
According to figures supplied by the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries, locally manufactured cars secured less than 20 per cent of the total Australian vehicle market in April; slightly more than the YTD figure. In real numbers that's just 15,045 of the 75,614 vehicles sold here in April.
Just to refresh your memories, Ford builds the Falcon sedan, Utility and Territory SUV, Holden the Commodore sedan (wagon and Ute and Monaro are demised at this point, though Adventra limps on) while Mitsubishi builds the 380 sedan and Toyota the Camry/Aurion sedans. Everything else, dear listener, arrives by boat into one of our suitably located harbours.
Waving at the imports on their way in, as they themselves depart, are vast quantities of Holden Commodore sedans (wearing an increasing variety of badges from Chevrolet Pontiac, Opel, Buick and Daewoo), and significant numbers of Toyota Camrys and Aurions. On occasion, these are accompanied across the Tasman (and to South Africa) by a small quantity of right-hand drive Falcons, Territorys and 380s.
Is it any surprise that we're tuned to Asian and European tastes? When was the last time you pulled on an Aussie-made pullover, suit or shoes? Tuned an Aussie-made stereo or piano? Watched an Aussie-made TV program on a weeknight?
Holden is an undeniable success story. Its Aussie designed and built car is winning friends across the world and opening up new markets on its product strength alone. Toyota's Camry is a successful Aussie mod-job on an undeniably sound base. Ford doesn't have a left-hook Falcon, nor Mitsubishi an export program.
Export or die? It's a stark reality, but if you're in manufacturing, there's no option. The Victorian government's surprising Stamp Duty reduction (not abolition, you'll note) could have been, maybe should have been, limited to the purchase of locally-built cars.
After all, stimulating sales of Victorian/Australian assembled cars would be good for the economy and would help secure jobs, at a time when component manufacturers are struggling to stay afloat, or worse, are at risk of disrupting production plants because they can't supply their vital widget to hold a Ford, Holden, Toyota or Mitsubishi together.
You get to feeling the small component manufacturers nestled in Melbourne's outer suburbs are the crack in the dam. Once they decay, the small hole will quickly engorge, bring down the dam wall. Another stoppage on the final assembly line triggers a slowdown of cars delivered to dealers, upsetting customers.
Dealers will turn to their reliably arriving imported product in order to secure the sale. Customers win with frugal new-generation high-tech four-cylinder engines, fitted to bigger than ever bodies, equipped with the latest technology, such as ESP, traction control, Bluetooth connectivity, etc, etc, etc…
Buying a big six because it is rear-wheel drive? Fine if you're not up for the fuel. But more and more new car buyers can afford to fly to their holiday destination, not lug the caravan or trailer.
Sales of locally-made big-six rear-drive cars are not slow because the cars are not good. It's because they're not the right cars right now.
Falcon sedan sales YTD are down 26 per cent on the same period last year. And there's almost a year to go before the new one pops up.
Toyota's feisty Yaris outsold Falcon in April, 2325 to 2255. The run-out Corolla came close to Falcon too, at 2202, with Camry notching 1975 four-cylinder sales.
VE Commodore, the latest and greatest is only 12.7 per cent up on the ancient VZ over the same period last year. Mitsubishi's 380 is out of ICU, and stable, just 175 units down on the same period last year.
The one local shining light emanates from Camp T. Camry sales are a creditable 8422 YTD, and Aurion's success (6694 YTD) has closed the book on Avalon. Combine Camry and Aurion sales and the big(ish) Toyotas have outsold Falcon, and are muscling up to Commodore.
Aurion alone in April was closer to Falcon than a "Big Six" Japanese LM has ever been. And sales of locally made Toyotas are up 58 per cent YTD, against Ford's 17.9 per cent drop, Holden's 0.4 per cent decline and Mitsubishi is 15.8 per cent worse off.
Year-to-date, the Big Four aren't looking too bad thanks to a full line-up of supporting imports. Holden is on a charge to capture ground from Territory with Captiva.
Territory has a hand behind its back, since Captiva burns oil or gasoline. Would Ford dealers like a diesel Territory? Are the Kennedys gun shy?
Away from the politicking at the big end of town where slicing and dicing market share is all the rage, there are some lonely makes bumping along on the bottom of the bay, looking for that missing gem of a car or SUV to send them rocketing to the surface.
Perennial offenders Saab and Renault have made no progress. SsangYong takes the prize for the most different models and fewest sales (nine model lines on sale and 200 units shifted in April).
Proton is in danger of gaining traction with its newer models (now five in all for 170 units; up 60 per cent on April sales last year), and Jaguar's four model lines argued over 68 unit sales for the month. Compare that with Subaru's five model lines and 2710 April sales.
If you're going to aim low, stick to one model. Dodge sold 130 cars in April, just seven shy of Alfa's total and it has seven model lines.
April's always a sticky month for sales with Easter, school holidays and Anzac Day disrupting the genial flow of business. Handing out the big end-of-month bonuses based on April 07 vs April 06 sales would have been top management at Audi (40.9 per cent), Honda (58.2 per cent), Suzuki (65.1 per cent), and Volkswagen (30.8 per cent). NB: Tiddler brands have been ignored.
Otto's Golden Easter Egg for the greatest improvement in unit sales across the industry for April 07 compared with April 06 goes to Honda for selling 1761 more units, while Toyota gets the double choc version for selling 8696 more units YTD compared with 06.
Otto's Easter bunnies reside in the north of Melbourne -- the Broadmeadows boys and girls were 631 units poorer for the month and 2925 off 2006, YTD. That diesel engine and new body can't come fast enough for the Orion gazers.
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Originally Posted by digitalcraft
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