Welcome Miles, rarely have I seen such an informative and well considered post as an opener. Averaging 40 on a bike is bit on the optimistic side though, that is clearly the territory of well trained semi-pro cyclists. I am always happy when I manage an average over 30, but that takes into account normal traffic circumstances, which is not always favourable to cyclists, even in the small (and flat) North Western European country that I live in.
Having that said that, the little difference will not affect the basis for your calculations only the results. And my wife, a dietician, always tells me that 2000 kcal is enough for non-exercising day in the office....
"I find the whole business of religion profoundly interesting, but it does mystify me that otherwise intelligent people take it seriously." Douglas Adams