Pleny of people have siad the US invaded Iraq for oil. I always maintained that was too simplistic. It is intersting though how when you dig around on some websites how obvious it now is that the US feels compelled to secure as much influence in the middle East to secure oil resources. I have previously posted from the Project for the New American Century website which spells out the US's rationale behind the neccesity to secure oil resources. Here is another interesting on Center for Strategic and International Studies web site.
http://www.csis.org/burke/meep/growing_importance.pdf
Projected Increases in MENA (Middle East North Africa) Oil Production Capacity Through 2025. Given these factors, it is hardly surprising that most estimates indicate that the MENA region will steadily expand its oil production increase its share of world production, and increase its impact on the global economy through 2025-2030.
There are dangers in estimating and modeling the behavior of countries before the countries involved have made any clear decision about their future plans. Most countries in the region only have limited long-range plans to would be if the countries involved had either declared they would make such increases of that it was in response to market forces. At the same time, most countries in the region have never made serious long-range plans to expand production capacity and most have reacted to market forces although few have risked anticipating them.
Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved. It is equally important to note that market forces are only one of the factors that have shaped MENA behavior. MENA region has been the scene of more than ten conflicts and major internal security struggles over the last two decades, and that the production capacity and exports of several states have been affected by UN and US sanctions. As a result, it is important to review the assessments of estimated increases in production by country and understand that the expansion in each country involves both economic aid and some security risks.
The resulting EIA projections can be summarized as follows (the minimum and maximum range provided in other projection is shown in parenthesis):17
• Algeria is projected to increase production capacity from 1.6 MMBD in 2001 to 2.8 MMBD in 2025, or by 75%. (2.2 MMBD to 3.0 MMBD),
• Iran is projected to increase production capacity from 3.7 MMBD in 2001 to 4.9 MMBD in 2025, or by 32%. (4.6 MMBD to 5.7 MMBD),
• Iraq is projected to increase production capacity from 2.8 MMBD in 2001 to 5.2 MMBD in 2025, or by 75%. (4.8 MMBD to 6.1 MMBD),
• Kuwait is projected to increase production capacity from 2.4 MMBD in 2001 to 5.1 MMBD in 2025,or by 113%. (4.3 MMBD to 5.7 MMBD),
• Libya is projected to increase production capacity from 1.7 MMBD in 2001 to 2.9 MMBD in 2025, orby 71%. (2.4 MMBD to 3.1 MMBD),
• Qatar is projected to increase production capacity from 0.6 MMBD in 2001 to 0.8 MMBD in 2025, or by 0.0%. (0.8 MMBD to 0.8 MMBD),
• Saudi Arabia is projected to increase production capacity from 10.2 MMBD in 2001 to 23.8 MMBD in 2025, or by 133%. (17.6 MMBD to 30.3 MMBD),
• The UAE is projected to increase production capacity from 2.7 MMBD in 2001 to 5.4 MMBD in 2025, or by 100%. (4.9 MMBD to 5.9 MMBD).
Who out of these is not on good terms with th US before the Iraqi invasion? Who still isnt?
As is touched upon above, the variations shown in parenthesis reflect the impact of different projections of market forces. The lower production capacity is the result of high oil prices that ease the revenue and cash flow problems of exporting states. The high production capacity estimate is the result of low oil prices and the need to increase production to increase
export earnings. To put these differences in perspective, the reference case estimates project the OPEC Gulf nations to have a total production capacity of 45.2 MMBD in 2025 – a rise of over 100% above the 2001 level. The low-end estimate would be 37.0 MMBD and the high-end estimate
Reply With Quote
Originally Posted by henk4
