Originally Posted by
crisis
The oil shortage is manufactured by OPEC. As at 2000, the known reserves are a trillion barrels (1 barrel equals 159 liters, 42 gallons, or 0.16 m3), the estimated world reserves, according are about 1.5 x 1011 m3. 1 trillion barrels of crude oil is enough to supply the world for about 50 years. This prediction is based on the present world consumption, however, world consumption is expected to increase.
This last year the oil industry has had to face the facts and have seen companies DRAMATICALLY changing their estimates of oil avilability. Shell has cut its estiamtes by 1/3rd !! It runs out the oil industry has never been that good at getting estimates right but as long as they could keep finding new major fields it wasn't an issue. It's different now. There ARE no "easy" fields any more and so the truth is starting to be seen.
The estimates also assume that new technology will come on stream to get the last 30% out of those existing fields. That technology isn't even KNOWN for the more diffifcult fields like the North Sea and Bering Straits !!
So already you MAY be looking at 1/3rd less than 50 years for the estimateion errors AND ANOTHER almost a 1/3rd for accessability.
Suddenly it's now within a single generation !!
And yet our consumption continues to increase.
There are is no point waiting till we have to befor ecutting consumption as by then it's too late. There are some things ONLY reasonable to produce from oil. Those other non-necessities will become less available and much more expensive.
An analogy easier to grasp. If you have wheat grain you have a choice.
You can have a feast NOW, eat it all and live in luxury till the wheat runs out.
OR you can plant 25% of it. Have enough to eat but not a feast and generations can live forever.
If we squander fuel now then it will be hard to make products REQUIRED in the future.
This doesn't mean NO SUVs ( or no trips ) but it SHOULD mean we should all be doing what little we can to curtail the inappropriate wastage. And dragging around 3 tonnes of SUV so mom can look pretty and kids can look 'cool' just is wrong.
"A woman without curves is like a road without bends, you might get to your destination quicker but the ride is boring as hell'