Cyprus...

[Kitdy]

Cyprus is another in the European domino effect. However, if the Cypriot proposal to levy a tax on deposits and limit withdrawals goes through, I think that would have just as devastating an effect on banking in Europe as a bank failing. Fearing a similar tax at home, a lot of folks might start closing out their accounts elsewhere. That could lead banks which are stable but on the edge to go over that edge. Cyprus does not worry me as much, simply because the cash injections needed to stabilise it - provided the EU follows roughly the same formula as they have elsewhere - would be a relative drop in the bucket. EU lawmakers might actually agree to just go ahead and get Cyprus done so they can get back to bickering about Spain and Greece.

Someone's been reading The Economist!

So far all of the reports I have heard (scant coverage in the US of international proceedings, so it isn't many) say that people are very much against this move.

I don't bother with newspapers anymore. Even our paper of record, The Globe and Mail, is shit.

[LTSmash]

The news on Cyprus was brutal today... Especially for crude markets. WTI went down about $1.60ish and the Brent spread closed even more, and that was even on a good economic news day for the US (housing starts increased).

Dropped me quick when the news hit and now I'm holding contracts overnight... Luckily, there was a good recovery in Asian trading market hours. The consensus from some analysts is that this "may" not bring a huge burden on the worldwide economy as a whole... you could say that $10 billion is piss money on this scale. At least not on the degree that Greece has made on European markets.

World markets seem to be making a recovery, albeit at a snails pace. If EMs can get it together we might be seeing a rise in worldwide industrial production. That is if interest rates and inflation don't bog down the BRICs and Europe.

[Kitdy]

Why didn't you short crude then!?

[LTSmash]

Why didn't you short crude then!?

Because I have a bad habit of not taking a trading loss... EVER (even if it's only a few cents on the contracts). On occasion, I'll hold positions forever if it goes sour and wait for the rebound. It's a bad habit, I know. But I've been on a heater for the past few months and don't want to lose my momentum (I think I just did today, though)... Oh well, I just checked the price and I'm about 10 cent from my limit order so I'm not too scared anymore.

[jcp123]

I love shorting. It feels like cheating.

[LTSmash]

I love shorting. It feels like cheating.

Not when your on a crude oil account. That's unlimited losses accelerated by 100x. Scary stuff when momentum shifts... since the market is always trying to pull the price up. But I know what you mean. I was on the phone with another portfolio manager the other week and he shorted crude at 96 a few weeks ago. What a call.

[jcp123]

Someone's been reading The Economist!



I don't bother with newspapers anymore. Even our paper of record, The Globe and Mail, is shit.

I get it for free, it's interesting, and is a hell of a lot more informative about what's going on outside of our ivory tower here in the US than most anything else I've read. Plus they invented the Big Mac Index, case closed. So I suppose my skull full of mush has at least for now been put in some kind of economics alignment!

[Kitdy]

Because I have a bad habit of not taking a trading loss... EVER (even if it's only a few cents on the contracts). On occasion, I'll hold positions forever if it goes sour and wait for the rebound. It's a bad habit, I know. But I've been on a heater for the past few months and don't want to lose my momentum (I think I just did today, though)... Oh well, I just checked the price and I'm about 10 cent from my limit order so I'm not too scared anymore.

I love shorting. It feels like cheating.

Not when your on a crude oil account. That's unlimited losses accelerated by 100x. Scary stuff when momentum shifts... since the market is always trying to pull the price up. But I know what you mean. I was on the phone with another portfolio manager the other week and he shorted crude at 96 a few weeks ago. What a call.

Stop speaking that nonsense language! What is all that gibberish?

[Kitdy]

I get it for free, it's interesting, and is a hell of a lot more informative about what's going on outside of our ivory tower here in the US than most anything else I've read. Plus they invented the Big Mac Index, case closed. So I suppose my skull full of mush has at least for now been put in some kind of economics alignment!

It's better for inside US news as well. It is just, better.

[jcp123]

I like the way they write, too - not so dumbed down, they assume you have a working knowledge of the basics. And also not written in greek, either. Also something you would likely not see from a publication in the US, they make no pretense of trying to be unbiased - they put forth their opinion, when needed, back it up with why they believe it to be the right call, and let you decide. I don't always agree with them but respect them greatly for that. I admit that it and public radio have been most of my source of information on the eurozone stuff.

BUT

It wasn't giving me a good sense of the feeling on the street. Hence my post, and I think a similar curiosity prompted this one as well.

[Ferrer]

Stop speaking that nonsense language! What is all that gibberish?

Don't worry, Ferrer to the rescue!

16 valve, twin carb, oversteer, double-declutch, six manual, tyre smoke.

There you go. Everything is well now.

Or something.

[Cyco]

Because I have a bad habit of not taking a trading loss... EVER (even if it's only a few cents on the contracts). On occasion, I'll hold positions forever if it goes sour and wait for the rebound. It's a bad habit, I know. But I've been on a heater for the past few months and don't want to lose my momentum (I think I just did today, though)... Oh well, I just checked the price and I'm about 10 cent from my limit order so I'm not too scared anymore.

That has the potential to make you either loose lots of sleep, or worse.

I'm a chartist. I don't care what it is, I can and will trade it (so long as my account will take the stop placement risk)

I get it for free, it's interesting, and is a hell of a lot more informative about what's going on outside of our ivory tower here in the US than most anything else I've read. Plus they invented the Big Mac Index, case closed. So I suppose my skull full of mush has at least for now been put in some kind of economics alignment!

I subscribe to the Australian versions of these Economic News and Ideas on Debt, the Market, Gold, Oil, and Investing. and Investment News: Money Morning - Only the News You Can Profit From

Cove a lot of non-mainstream stuff. Some of it can seem a little alarmist, other stuff just a different way of looking at the problem. The later are good articles.

Stop speaking that nonsense language! What is all that gibberish?

You are obviously failing to keep up to date on LTROs, ZIRPs, risk on/off, and a variety of other acronyms...

[LTSmash]

That has the potential to make you either loose lots of sleep, or worse.

Yeah, it was one of those nights...

EDIT: But my limit order was reached at about 2:00 AM last night, so all in all I had a good day when all said and done. You say you can trade anything? I'm sure you don't mean momentum trading on equities and the such. I prefer crude for the large volatility... and it's my area of expertise as I get paid to do this awful job...

[henk4]

Interesting take Henk, and I can't say I disagree.

Did it hurt?
Anyway apparently the totals savings amount on Cypriot banks is reported to be about 68 billion euros, of which 31 is for the account of Cyprus citizens and the remaining 37 are foreign deposits, mainly from Russia, Lebanon and the Ukraine.
However, given that the number of Cypriots is about 870000 thousand, of which about 270000 live in the Turkish part, the total amount of savings for each Greek Cypriot seems to be well over 50000 Euro. No wonder that taking some of that too looks attractive.

[roosterjuicer]

Yeah, it was one of those nights...

EDIT: But my limit order was reached at about 2:00 AM last night, so all in all I had a good day when all said and done. You say you can trade anything? I'm sure you don't mean momentum trading on equities and the such. I prefer crude for the large volatility... and it's my area of expertise as I get paid to do this awful job...

Ohhhh dear...I didn't know you boys were into stock trading. The RJ has been known to dabble from time to time. Although I primarily see myself as more of an "investor" than a trader. I have bought a few bank shares during the down days relating to Cyprus. Regardless, prepare to be bombarded with stock related threads from here out.